The coronavirus pandemic found the country’s economy in the most critical phase, with the first signs of recovery, due to our painstaking efforts, after a ten-year period of crisis, was visible. At this stage, it might be risky to make a first assessment of the economic impact of the pandemic on the Greek economy. We do not yet know how far back we have come back, but market people feel that the government’s handling so far is trying to reduce the impact and not allow the unknown account of the invisible war to grow.
According to the current estimates of the Ministry of Finance, it is estimated that our monthly losses amount to 2% of GDP, while according to the OECD on an annual basis the losses are estimated at 5-8% of GDP, while in the strongest European economies, the losses will reach monthly 3-5% and on an annual basis 8-11%. So, for example, if we show the above percentages today, Greece would have losses of 15 billion euros, Europe 1.5 trillion euros and the world economy 15 trillion dollars. So the size and flexibility of the Greek economy may be a big advantage at this time of year, as fewer are lost can be recovered faster, unlike bigger economies where many are lost and difficult to recover.
We would characterize the coherent measures of support of the Greek government, amounting to 10 + 14 billion euros, mainly with own resources, for almost all households, businesses, employees and the unemployed, as “instant measures” of suspension, support and relief, which is very likely need to be repeated during the pandemic. The European package will be added to the “Greek package” of measures, when taken, which aspires to restart the EU-27 economy through the ECB, ESM and EIB.
Distinguishing the individual actions in support of the EU, we recognize as positive for our country the ECB’s decision to now accept Greek bonds as pledge, which may reduce the cost of money and give additional liquidity of 10 billion euros that until now was not available for Greece. Also a Greek success and a milestone for the real economy are the approval of the EU Competition Commission, the creation of a 2 billion euro guarantee fund that can be leveled through banks at 7-8 billion euros, and the “refundable down payment” with immediate liquidity. 1 billion euros in the market.
We must therefore recognize that the reflexes of the Greek government, which has rightly prioritized public health over the economy, taking the appropriate measures in a timely manner, to reduce the pandemic are recognized worldwide as the most effective. This may be the key to moving on to the next day and recovering faster, both as a society and as an economy.
Our Chamber of Commerce in the largest port of the country has been closely monitoring the unprecedented economic phenomenon since day one, in order to intervene in government decisions over time, regarding the effects of the “lockdown” on all affected companies. Thanks to the direct and continuous communication with the companies, we identified the branches that have been directly and indirectly affected, more or less from the pandemic and that continued all this time to operate with serious losses. Businesses that do not own food and medicine are currently facing perhaps the most significant challenges and difficulties of the great crisis, but as long as they continue to operate, they have a small lead in restarting the next day.
It is encouraging that in the first three months of the year, despite the extremely adverse conditions, business registrations in PCCI amount to 261, while the solutions and shutdowns in just 70. More specifically and mainly through the «one stop shop» of the Chamber we had 77 establishments in January, 94 in February and 90 in March despite measures to reduce the pandemic. It is also optimistic that in the port of Piraeus, during this period, the average export increased by + 10%. With the resumption of China due to the flight of the corona and the gradual activation of Chinese export and import companies, the port of Piraeus hopes to stop the fall in traffic, as it averaged -22% compared to the first two months of the year, for the last month in terms of import trade.
In summary, we cannot ignore the fact that the next day there will certainly be “big thorns” that no one can know the starting line, how the market will be like, with what consumer force, how many customers and suppliers will continue to operate, how the trade will take place, how much liquidity will be needed, in how much time and at what cost goods will be replaced, but also how many debts and checks will eventually be paid. However, let’s hope that we will restart the next day on a different basis, since we have all realized that our return to “healthy” everyday life is not going to be easy, while nothing in society and economy will be the same as before.
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