After six months of conflict in the Persian Gulf, the Piraeus Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) has reviewed data from the EU, ECB, IMF, IEA, Eurostat and ELSTAT to assess the economic and energy-related impact on Greece and the European Union. The crisis has unfolded in six phases, alternating between escalation and temporary de-escalation, with consequences spreading far beyond the battlefield.
The conflict has triggered a new wave of energy and trade disruption, less severe than the 2022 shock, yet strong enough to overturn the EU’s initial economic outlook for 2026. The most immediate effect has been the surge in energy prices. Reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil, fuel and natural gas prices roughly 30% above pre-war levels by July.
For the EU, the additional energy bill reached €85 billion, reflecting higher spending for essentially the same volumes of energy. Europe’s shift toward LNG has reduced dependence on Russian pipelines but increased exposure to global shipping routes and volatile international prices.
Economic growth has also weakened. The EU downgraded its 2026 forecast to 1.1%, while the IMF estimates a 0.5% GDP loss for the euro area over two years. The six-month impact on turnover and real activity is estimated at €30 billion, driven by weaker consumption, postponed investment and rising production costs.
Inflation remains a major concern. The ECB expects it to peak near 3% in late 2026, largely because higher oil prices feed into fuels, food and agricultural goods. The inflationary burden is estimated at €25 billion, while transport and supply‑chain disruptions add another €15 billion, and fiscal measures add roughly €15 billion more. In total, the EU’s gross economic burden for the six months reaches €145 billion.
For Greece, the estimated cost is €3 billion, including €1.5 billion in additional energy expenses, €600 million in lost turnover, €500 million in transport and supply chain costs, and €400 million in fiscal measures. Inflationary pressure – around €1 billion – is partly embedded in these figures. Despite 2% GDP growth in the first half of 2026 and easing inflation, households and SMEs still face liquidity constraints.
Shipping presents a mixed picture: domestic ferry services suffer from higher fuel prices, while Greek-owned ocean-going shipping benefits from elevated freight rates, though offset by increased risks, insurance premiums and longer voyages. These gains do not compensate for the broader burden on industry, trade, transport, tourism and SMEs.
The six phases of the conflict reflect a cycle of escalation, disrupted navigation through Hormuz, temporary easing, renewed uncertainty, fresh military escalation and, most recently, a return to heightened geopolitical risk, creating an increasingly structural economic cost for Europe.
The six-month review confirms that the war has evolved into a major economic factor. Europe and Greece urgently need energy diversification, investment in electricity grids and logistics hubs, and a faster shift toward a production-driven economic model. The key conclusion is clear: uncertainty now has a price. Strengthening domestic and European production, especially in energy and agri-food, is essential. In an era of continuous geopolitical disruption, economic resilience is no longer a policy option; it is a prerequisite for growth and competitiveness.
Article written by Mr. Vassilis Korkidis, President of the Piraeus Chamber of Commerce and Industry and Vice-President of ASCAME.